Gold prices slipped below the $4,800 level on Thursday, hitting their lowest point in over a month. The decline came as the US Dollar stayed strong after the Federal Reserve signaled a tough stance on inflation, making gold less attractive to investors.
Although gold saw some small gains earlier in the day, it failed to hold them and moved lower during the European session. A stronger dollar usually puts pressure on gold, as it does not offer any interest or yield.
Fresh data from the US added to the pressure. The Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 0.7% in February, higher than the previous month’s 0.3%. On a yearly basis, it jumped to 3.4%, marking the biggest increase in a year. At the same time, the Federal Reserve raised its inflation outlook and warned about risks from rising energy prices linked to tensions involving Iran.
The Fed also indicated that interest rate cuts could be limited. It now expects only one rate cut this year and another in 2027, while also improving its economic growth forecast for 2026. This outlook continues to support the US Dollar and keeps gold under pressure.
However, rising geopolitical tensions may prevent gold from falling too sharply. Reports suggest that energy facilities in the Persian Gulf were targeted following Israeli strikes on Iran’s South Pars gas field. In response, former US President Donald Trump warned of possible large-scale retaliation and the expansion of military actions in the region. There are also discussions about deploying more US troops to West Asia.
Such developments often increase demand for safe-haven assets like gold, which could limit further downside.
Investors are now watching upcoming policy decisions from major central banks, including the Swiss National Bank, the Bank of England, and the European Central Bank. Key US data, such as jobless claims and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, may also influence gold prices in the short term.
Technical Outlook: Sellers Remain in Control
Gold remains under pressure after breaking below key support levels last week. The drop below the $5,040–$5,035 zone was an important signal that sellers were gaining control.
Momentum indicators also suggest weakness. The MACD has turned negative again, pointing to fresh downside movement. Meanwhile, the RSI is below 30, showing that gold is in oversold territory. Even so, the overall trend still favors further decline rather than a strong rebound.
If prices try to recover, resistance is likely near $4,920. A stronger barrier stands around $5,037, where previous support levels now act as resistance.
On the downside, immediate support is seen near $4,843, followed by the key level at $4,801. If gold breaks below this zone, the next major support could come near $4,634. At that point, some traders may start booking profits on short positions.
