US Nonfarm Payrolls expected to increase by 62K in April as investors closely watch the upcoming labor market report for signals on the Federal Reserve next policy move. The report expected to be released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday is scheduled to show slower job growth compared to March strong 178K gain. The unemployment rate is forecast to wait steady at 4.3%, while yearly wage growth could rise to 3.8% from 3.5%.
Market participants are paying immersion to the employment data because it could influence expectations around future US interest rates. Analysts from TD Securities believe the labor market may be stabilizing after several months of mixed data. They expect payrolls to increase by around 80K, supported mainly by health care and hospitality hiring while government jobs could decline slightly.
Earlier this week ADP data showed private sector employment rose by 109K in April after a revised 61K increase in March. Meanwhile the employment factor of the ISM Services PMI improved but still remained in contraction territory suggesting hiring conditions are still soft.
The US Dollar has stayed under stress in recent weeks despite the Federal Reserve maintaining a cautious stance on rate cuts. Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that the labor market has weak but intensified that future policy opinions will depend on incoming economic data and inflation risks. According to the CME Fed Watch Tool markets currently expect the Fed to keep rates unchanged through the end of 2026.
A weaker than expected payrolls report highly below 30K could increase expectations for a future rate cut and put pressure on the US Dollar. On the other hand stronger job data could support the USD by reducing hopes for policy easing later this year.
From a technical perspective analysts note that EUR/USD continues to show bullish momentum. Resistance is seen near the 1.1800 level while important support remains around the 1.1710–1.1680 zone.
