The NZD/USD pair finds renewed buying interest after a mild pullback in the previous session, pushing higher for the fourth consecutive day on Thursday. During early European trading, the pair moves toward the 0.5835–0.5840 range, as buyers attempt to break above the important 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), despite mixed underlying fundamentals.
The latest minutes from the March 17–18 FOMC meeting, released Wednesday, indicate that policymakers still anticipate one rate cut by the end of this year and another in 2027. This outlook limits the US Dollar’s recovery from its recent one-month low, providing support to NZD/USD. However, ongoing geopolitical tensions continue to lend strength to the USD as a safe-haven asset, potentially restricting further upside in the risk-sensitive Kiwi.
In the Middle East, Israel launched a series of airstrikes across Lebanon, stating that the ceasefire did not apply due to Hezbollah’s involvement. In retaliation, Iran again halted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and warned it may withdraw from the ceasefire if attacks persist. Additionally, US President Donald Trump signaled the possibility of renewed strikes if negotiations with Iran fail, highlighting continued escalation risks that could favor the USD.
Market participants remain cautious and avoid strong directional positions ahead of key US economic releases. Focus now shifts to the final Q4 GDP data and the closely watched Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index. Furthermore, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI), scheduled for Friday, will provide additional clarity on the Federal Reserve’s policy path. A sustained breakout above the 200-day SMA is required to confirm further bullish momentum in the NZD/USD pair.
