Gold prices (XAU/USD) posted modest gains on Thursday but remained near weekly lows around the $4,220 level. The precious metal initially benefited from optimism surrounding potential peace negotiations involving Iran; however, those gains were quickly erased after the Federal Reserve delivered a more hawkish-than-expected message, reinforcing expectations of additional interest rate hikes later this year.
As anticipated, the Federal Reserve kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged. However, newly appointed Chairman Kevin Warsh reiterated the central bank’s commitment to bringing inflation back to its 2% target. The Fed’s statement highlighted stronger economic activity and continued resilience in the labor market, while updated projections showed that nine out of nineteen policymakers expect at least one rate hike in 2026.
Following the announcement, market participants increased their expectations for a potential rate increase as early as October. This shift has supported both US Treasury yields and the US Dollar, limiting demand for non-yielding assets such as gold.
Technical Analysis: Gold Remains Under Pressure Below Key Resistance
XAU/USD is currently trading near $4,269 and continues to maintain a broader bearish outlook while remaining below a significant resistance zone. Although momentum indicators on the daily chart are showing signs of stabilization, they have yet to confirm a bullish reversal.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains slightly above the 40 mark, indicating weak buying momentum, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) stays in negative territory. Together, these indicators suggest that bearish pressure has eased but remains dominant.
On the upside, sellers continue to defend the former support area around $4,370, which now acts as immediate resistance. Additional barriers are located near the descending trendline resistance from early March highs above $4,400 and the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,464.
On the downside, Wednesday’s low near $4,220 serves as the first support level. A break below this area could expose the June 11 low around $4,023. Further weakness may open the door toward the late-October 2025 low near $3,886, which stands as the next major bearish target.
