Gold prices stayed under pressure during Thursday Asian trading session slipping at the $4,246-$4,247 area and giving back part of Wednesday recovery from the lowest levels seen since November 2025. Demand for the US Dollar sturdy after conflicting reports emerged regarding a possible peace agreement between the United States & Iran weighing on the valuable metal. Expectations that the Federal Reserve could keep interest rates lifted for longer also limited demand for non- resigned assets such as gold.
US President Donald Trump stated that an agreement with Iran had been reached and supported that a final document could be signed in the coming days. Still optimism faded after Iranian officials indicated that no final verdict had been made. Reports also suggested that Iran Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei has yet to approve the proposed agreement. According to Iranian media, several key issues including access through the Strait of Hormuz and the release of frozen funds remain pending.
Further doubt emerged after Iranian authorities allegedly stopped a tanker from passing through the strategic waterway without prior coordination. In addition reports indicated that US forces grabbed and destroyed two Iranian attack drones near the Strait of Hormuz. These developments have kept geopolitical concerns alive and supported a reaction in crude oil prices raising worries about inflationary pressures.
Recent US inflation data has supported expectations that the Federal Reserve may maintain a restrictive policy stance. Both the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) pointed to renewed inflationary stresses strengthening the case for higher interest rates. This has continued to support the US Dollar while reducing the appeal of gold.
Despite the current weakness traders remain cautious about increasing bearish positions amid ongoing uncertainty in the Middle East. Nevertheless gold is still on track to record a second successive week of major losses.
Technical Outlook
Gold continues to trade below its 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) keeping the short-term outlook tilted to the downside. The metal recently failed to nurture gains above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the decline from April’s peak suggesting that the latest rebound may have been driven mainly by short-covering activity.
Momentum indicators also point to lingering weakness. The MACD remains in negative territory, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stays below neutral levels, indicating that sellers still maintain control despite recent stabilization.
On the upside, immediate resistance is seen near the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level around $4,229, followed by the 38.2% retracement near $4,355. Additional resistance is located around the 200-day SMA near $4,450 and the 50% retracement level close to $4,456. A sustained move
Disclaimer:- This article is only for educational and informational purposes. Any information given in it is not financial advice. There is significant risk in Forex trading and you can lose your entire invested capital. Before making any trading decision, definitely consult your financial advisor. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
