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Forex market today’s session is clearly moving around central bank events and scheduled economic releases. The day is starting with the G7 Meetings, which set the overall global economic sentiment. In the European session, German ZEW Economic Sentiment and Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment will be released. German ZEW is expected at -5.8 compared to -10.2, while Eurozone ZEW is expected at -7.2 against -9.1. This data can decide short-term sentiment for EUR pairs.
Market Overview – Today Forex Environment
The market is already in a mixed tone where traders are waiting for central bank communication on one side and macro data on the other side. Today’s flow will mostly be event-driven, so sudden movement in price action is expected.
GBP Session – Bond Market Activity
On the GBP side, a 10-year Bond Auction is scheduled with a yield of 4.98 and a bid-to-cover of 3.6 reported. This bond market data generally impacts GBP sentiment indirectly, especially when risk appetite is changing.
USD Data Session – Important Economic Releases
In the US session, multiple high-impact data releases are scheduled.
ADP Weekly Employment Change is reported at 29.0K, which gives a short-term picture of the labor market. After this, Building Permits are expected at 1.42M and Housing Starts are expected at 1.43M, while the previous reading was 1.47M. This data reflects the strength of the US housing sector.
Import Prices m/m are reported at 0.9% while the previous was 1.9%. This directly indicates inflation pressure and is an important signal for USD pairs.
API Weekly Statistical Bulletin is also scheduled, which is related to oil and energy inventory data and can have an indirect impact on USD sentiment.
NZD Session – Sentiment and Trade Data
On the NZD side, the GDT Price Index is reported at -0.6%, which reflects dairy prices. Westpac Consumer Sentiment is recorded at 94.7, which shows consumer confidence.
Current Account is expected at -1.03B compared to -5.98B, which is an important external balance indicator for NZD.
JPY Session – Key Economic Data
For JPY, Core Machinery Orders are reported at 2.1% while the previous was -9.4%, showing improvement. Trade Balance is -0.21T while the previous was 0.24T.
This data becomes even more important in the context of the BOJ Press Conference because the market is already repricing monetary policy expectations.
AUD Session – Leading Index and Central Bank Focus
For AUD, the MI Leading Index m/m is reported at 0.0%, which gives a neutral growth signal.
RBA Assist Gov Jones Speaks and the RBA Press Conference are scheduled. According to Forex Factory notes, unscripted answers during the Q&A session of the RBA Press Conference create strong volatility, so sudden moves in AUD pairs are expected.
JPY – BOJ Press Conference Focus
The BOJ Press Conference is today’s most important event for JPY traders. The Bank of Japan Governor gives signals about the inflation outlook, economic conditions, and future monetary policy during this event.
According to Forex Factory notes, this press conference is the BOJ’s primary communication method and provides clues about future interest rate decisions. The event remains tentative until it starts, but the market is already moving in anticipation of it.
Market Summary – Overall Structure
Today’s forex market is completely under the influence of central banks and economic data. EUR ZEW data, US ADP employment and housing numbers, NZD sentiment data, JPY machinery orders, and the BOJ Press Conference together will decide market direction.
On the AUD side, the RBA Press Conference and on the USD side, employment and inflation-related data can create major volatility. JPY focus is on the BOJ while EUR focus is on ZEW sentiment.
Overall, the market is news-driven today and price action can show sharp moves according to economic releases.
Most Recent News
EUR/USD met some selling stress after rising to the mid-1.1700s during the Asian session closing much of the bullish gap seen at the start of the week. Despite this the pair is still holding above the key 1.1700 level so traders should be careful before expecting a continuity of Friday’s pullback from the recent high.
From a technical view the pair maintains a just bullish outlook as it remains above the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart display that dips are still being bought. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is around 53 indicating mild positive impetus without being overbought while the MACD stays slightly above zero. This suggests buying pressure exists but it is not very strong yet.
However after Friday drop it is safer to wait for a clear move above 1.1750 which also aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci level before gone further upside. The next resistance is near the recent high around 1.1847.
On the downside support is seen near 1.1692 (38.2% Fibonacci level). Below that a strong support zone lies around 1.1648–1.1644 where the 200-period SMA and 50% retracement meet. If the pair falls further the next levels to watch are 1.1596, followed by 1.1528 and 1.1441.
EUR/CAD continues to move lower for the third direct session trading near 1.5920 during Friday Asian session. The pair is under stress as the Euro weakens mostly due to rising risk aversion linked to ongoing tensions in the Middle East.
On Thursday US President Donald Trump said the naval siege of Iranian ports would remain in place. This comes among growing concerns that the critical Strait of Hormuz may stay closed for a long period. He also blamed attempts by Congress to limit his war powers including a Senate proposal that was rejected earlier according to Bloomberg.
Meanwhile Iran Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei motioned a tough stance stating that Iran would not give up its nuclear or missile programs. He also indicated that the country aims to maintain control over the Strait.
In Europe the European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged at its April meeting holding the deposit rate at 2%. The bank recognized that while the overall outlook remains stable risks to inflation have high and growth risks are leaning to the downside due to geopolitical tensions.
At the same time the Canadian Dollar is finding support from stronger oil prices which is adding then pressure on EUR/CAD. Although West Texas Intermediate opened lower it managed to recover just and trading around $102.40 per barrel though still in negative territory. Oil prices are on track for a second weekly gain as aims for a US-Iran deal continue to fade and concerns grow that the Strait of Hormuz may not reopen anytime soon.
Gold (XAU/USD) is trading just higher in early Thursday European session, holding on to little gains after impressive a fresh monthly low in the early session. However the overall outlook remains careful. The US Dollar continues to adjust for the fourth direct day following a quite hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve. Ongoing tensions between the US and Iran have also pushed the Dollar to its highest level since 13 April which is keeping pressure on gold prices.
As scheduled the US central bank kept interest rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%. Still decision saw notable dispute, with three policymakers opposite the tone of the statement the highest level of dissent since 1992. During the press conference Fed Chair Jerome Powell explained the talk focused on the tone of policy rather than any instant need for rate hikes. Even so traders have scaly back expectations of rate cuts in 2026 and are now pricing in more than a 10% chance of a rate boost by the end of the year.
At the same time rise energy prices driven by geopolitical tensions are attaching to inflation concerns. The status in the Middle East remains upset with US President Donald Trump refusing Iran’s latest proposal to end the war. He also repeated that no agreement will be reached unless Iran gives up its nuclear program. In extension the naval blockade of Iranian ports continues to break energy supply routes through the Strait of Hormuz.
These factors are supporting the US Dollar power and limiting any strong upside move in gold. Still gold has handled to break a three-day losing streak and is currently trading near $4,565, up around 0.50% on same day. Market participators are now delaying for key US data including the advance Q1 GDP report and the PCE Price Index. Policy updates from the Bank of England and the European Central Bank may also drive market volatility.
Technical outlook
Gold technical setup rest weak. The price just failed to stay above the 200-period Simple Moving Average on the 4 hour chart and under below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the March and April rally which favors sellers.
Impetus indicators also point to nonstop pressure. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is near 38 showing weak buying power while the MACD remains in negative territory. This suggests that any recovery could be limited unless gold moves above key resistance levels.
On the downside instant support is at $4,494. A break under this level could push prices toward $4,401 and then $4,268, where powerful support may come into play if selling pressure increases further.
Asian markets traded unevenly on Friday, with most indices slipping as rising oil prices weighed on sentiment. The surge in energy costs comes amid stalled US–Iran negotiations and continued disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, keeping investors cautious across the region.
Japanese equities showed a mixed performance. The Nikkei 225 managed to edge higher as investors reacted to fresh inflation data. Japan’s annual inflation rose to 1.5% in March, up from 1.3% in February, while core inflation increased to 1.8% year-on-year. Despite the uptick, both figures remain below the Bank of Japan’s 2% target, reinforcing expectations that the central bank may hold interest rates steady in its upcoming policy meeting.
Across the region, concerns about energy supply continue to dominate market sentiment. Many Asian economies rely heavily on Middle Eastern oil, making them sensitive to geopolitical developments involving Iran. Ongoing tensions and supply disruptions have kept oil prices elevated, raising fears about inflation and slowing global growth.
Elsewhere, markets struggled to gain momentum. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index slipped slightly, while South Korea’s KOSPI declined more sharply, pressured by weakness in technology stocks and profit-taking after recent gains. China’s SSE Composite Index also moved lower, reflecting cautious investor sentiment.
Geopolitical tensions added further pressure. Reports of US forces intercepting Iranian oil tankers and ongoing threats to shipping routes in the Strait of Hormuz have kept markets on edge. In South Korea, however, gains in defense-related stocks such as Hanwha Aerospace and Doosan Enerbility helped limit broader losses as investors rotated into sectors likely to benefit from rising geopolitical risks.
Gold is holding steady just below the $4,700 level during the early European session, showing some strength despite ongoing pressure. The main reason behind this weakness is a stronger US Dollar, which has been gaining for three consecutive days and continues to weigh on the metal. Ongoing tensions between the United States and Iran—particularly around the Strait of Hormuz and the US naval blockade—are also supporting the dollar. At the same time, reduced expectations of further interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve are adding to the USD’s strength, putting additional pressure on gold prices.
Although US President Donald Trump recently extended a temporary ceasefire with Iran, markets remain cautious. Investors are not fully convinced that tensions will ease, especially with no real progress in negotiations. Iran has made it clear that the removal of the US naval blockade is a key condition for talks to resume, while recent actions by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, including the seizure of two container ships, have increased concerns about further escalation. These developments are keeping geopolitical risks elevated and continue to support the US Dollar’s safe-haven appeal.
At the same time, disruptions in energy supply through the Strait of Hormuz are keeping crude oil prices high, which is pushing global inflation higher. This situation is leading to expectations that central banks, including the Federal Reserve, may maintain a more cautious or even hawkish approach. Even though the Fed has hinted at one rate cut this year, strong economic data and persistent inflation are making policymakers more hesitant. This reduces the appeal of gold, which does not offer interest, and encourages investors to move toward the dollar instead.
From a technical perspective, gold is trading near the lower end of an upward trend channel, suggesting a neutral short-term outlook. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is around 39, indicating weakening momentum but not yet oversold conditions. The MACD indicator also remains negative, showing that bullish momentum is still limited.
If gold falls below the $4,700 level and breaks the key support near $4,691, it could lead to further downside toward the $4,568 area. On the other hand, if buyers manage to push prices above the resistance around $4,926, it could signal a return of bullish momentum and open the door for further gains.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the strength of the US Dollar against six major currencies, is showing slight recovery after minor losses in the previous session. It is currently trading near 98.10 during early European trading hours on Tuesday.
Looking at the daily chart, the index is still moving within a descending channel, which generally signals a downward trend. This keeps the overall outlook slightly negative for now.
In the short term, the bias remains bearish as the index is trading below both the 9-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). The 14-day RSI is also hovering around 40, indicating weak momentum and suggesting that sellers are still in control after the recent decline.
If the downside continues, the index could move toward the lower boundary of the channel near 97.20. A clear break below this level may increase selling pressure and push the index toward 95.56 — its lowest level since February 2022, last seen on January 27.
On the upside, immediate resistance is seen around the 9-day EMA near 98.40. Beyond that, the upper channel boundary near 98.70 and the 50-day EMA at 98.83 could act as strong resistance levels. If the index manages to break above this zone, it may shift the sentiment to bullish and open the door toward 100.64, which is close to a 10-month high recorded on March 31.